Source URL: http://security.googleblog.com/2025/05/tracking-cost-of-quantum-factori.html
Source: Google Online Security Blog
Title: Tracking the Cost of Quantum Factoring
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Summary: The text discusses the implications of quantum computing on current cryptographic practices, specifically highlighting the urgency of transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards. This is crucial as advancements in quantum technology threaten to break widely used encryption methods like RSA, necessitating immediate action among security and compliance professionals.
Detailed Description:
The content provided emphasizes the ongoing developments in quantum computing and the associated risks for modern cryptographic systems:
– **Threat to Current Cryptography**: Quantum computers, once sufficiently advanced, have the potential to break public key cryptography algorithms, such as RSA, leveraging Shor’s algorithm. This represents a significant risk to data security as these algorithms are foundational to secure communications.
– **Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)**: Google has been actively collaborating with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and other stakeholders to identify and transition to PQC algorithms, which are designed to withstand quantum attacks.
– **Reduced Qubit Estimates**:
– A recent study indicates that a quantum computer with just 1 million noisy qubits could theoretically break 2048-bit RSA encryption within a week. This marks a significant reduction from previous estimates.
– Historical estimates for the qubits required to factor RSA keys have decreased dramatically from over a billion physical qubits to currently only needing around 1000, reflecting improvements in algorithms and error correction techniques.
– **Security Implications**:
– The risk of “store now, decrypt later” attacks emphasizes the urgency for migration to PQC, as attackers can capture encrypted data now and decrypt it later using quantum computers.
– NIST has finalized a set of PQC standards that organizations should adopt to protect against future threats.
– The text indicates that Google is already implementing these standards in its products, like Chrome and Cloud KMS.
– **Signature Algorithms and Complexity**: Signature key transitions are more complex due to their long life and diverse application, calling for early migration efforts to ensure security.
– **Recommended Timelines**: NIST suggests that vulnerable systems should be phased out by 2030 and no longer permitted post-2035, reinforcing the urgency for organizations to adopt new security standards swiftly.
This information holds significant relevance for professionals in the fields of security, compliance, and cryptography, particularly as they plan for the near future where quantum computing could dramatically alter the landscape of data protection. The emphasis on compliance with evolving standards and proactive measures is essential for maintaining robust security postures.